Three free picks from our model, posted daily once lineups are confirmed. Need a refresher on HR props? Visit our Home Run Prop Betting 101 to brush up before you play.
Valdez's well above average .229 ISO vs. righties gives him real pop, and Burke's 1.26 HR/9 is around average — not a suppressor. Rate Field plays slightly above neutral at 104, though the 8mph wind blowing in is a headwind that works against fly balls today. Valdez's above average .504 SLG keeps him relevant despite the wind.
Raleigh's elite .250 ISO and well-above-average .481 SLG make him one of the game's most dangerous power bats behind the plate. Quantrill has been hittable all year — his 1.39 HR/9 is batter-favorable and his 4.74 ERA signals a pitcher giving up damage. Controlled dome conditions at T-Mobile keep everything neutral, and Raleigh's switch-hitting profile means no platoon disadvantage.
Caminero's well above average .258 ISO and above average .519 SLG are legitimate, but Smith-Shawver's 0.81 HR/9 is well below average — he suppresses home runs at a strong rate. The WHIP of 1.49 signals he puts runners on, giving Caminero chances, but the HR suppression is a real cap on ceiling here. Truist Park is neutral at 101.
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